CLIFOOD subproject: Seasonal forecast of weather extremes for improving food security

Main objective of CLIFOOD is to educate students at the doctorate level in the field of climate change, agriculture and food security having the greatest possible interdisciplinary content to address the threats of climate change to food and nutrition security in the Eastern African region. 6 structured block seminars dealing with CLIFOOD related topics as well as soft skill courses are offered and will be obligatory for one PhD generation.

For this subproject a seasonal forecast on the convection permitting scale for summer and winter 2015 will be performed and evaluated over Africa. The results will be used to support farmers with respect to optimize agricultural practices, for risk assessment of extreme events, and the development of warning systems. A new seasonal simulation of the ENSO year 2015 along a latitude belt, which is now covering the entire tropical region will be set up and performed with the Weather and Research Forecast model (WRF). The skill will be analyzed and evaluated concerning precipitation, temperature, pressure system development and tracks.

The 3 main research questions:

1. Can the latitude belts simulation increase the predicatability of the evolution of the rainy season?
   
2. What is the added value of the high-resolution seasonal forecast with WRF in comparison to seasonal forecasts of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and the Weather Service of Ethiopia?
3. To which extent could such simulations enhance support farmers with respect to optimize agricultural practices, for risk assessment of extreme events, and the development of warning systems? .