The Future of Family-Based Smallholder Systems in Times of Bioeconomy - a MPMAS analysis for San Pedro del Paraná/Paraguay

The current social, economic, and ecological conditions affect family-based smallholder systems in Paraguay. Policy makers are interested in agricultural policies that are not only economically feasible on the short and long run but also consider farmers ideas, recognize their local knowledge and have a main focus on integrated systems. Yet, data, research and improved analysis are lacking to tackle such challenges at the regional and household level to provide feasible and adapted solutions. As a representative case the district of San Pedro del Paraná in the province of Itapúa was selected. The objective of the project is to depict the social and agronomic behavior of family-based smallholder systems and to identify ways farmers can exist during the transformation of the agricultural sector in times of bioeconomy. Based on a participatory modeling approach, connecting qualitative methods and "Mathematical-Programming-based Multi-Agent Systems" (MPMAS), the project focuses on: (1) The expansion of the industrialized agricultural sector and the consequences of the soybean production; (2) change of prices for arable land and agricultural products; (3) simulations of alternative land use systems such as silvopastoral and agroforestry-systems. In particular, simulations include domestication and integration of the native palm tree Acrocomia totai. As a result, we expect concrete ideas for farming practices adapted to the diverse smallholder systems within the district.