Effects of solar, climatic and atmospheric components on historical crop yields

Publication Type

Journal contribution

Authors

Franzaring, J., Henning-Müller, I., Funk, R., Hermann, W., Wulfmeyer, V., Claupein, W., Fangmeier, A.

Year of publication

2007

Published in

Gefahrstoffe – Reinhaltung der Luft (Air Quality Control)

Page (from - to)

251-258

Historical time series of crop yield and price statistics were related to solar activity, temperature, precipitation and concentrations of atmospheric compounds. In order to filter yield statistics for improvements of agricultural practice over time, yields were de-trended using their deviations from the five year moving averages. Inter-annual variability of yields was greatest for root crops and was more pronounced on local levels compared to regional and national yields. Relating yield deviations to monthly temperature averages and precipitation sums showed slight effects of climate on crop yields, but climate dependency varied largely between species and aggregation levels. For SW-Germany strongest negative correlations were found between crop yields and summer temperatures, indicating that hotter summers in a future climate will have adverse effects in this region. Yield data for the hot 1990s alone confirmed that for every degree temperature increase, yields decreased by 5-10 %. We suggest that historical yield data and local agrostatistical and agroclimatological information from long-term field trials may be used in national and regional sensitivity analyses to develop mitigation strategies for adverse effects of future climate changes on agriculture.